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Yerevan's 2009 Municipal Election

To build on the analytical work laid out in the 2008 Election Report, PFA embarked on another election-related report entitled “Yerevan’s 2009 Municipal Election: Statistical Analysis.” The objective of the report was to examine the statistical properties of the data—including by comparison with 2008 and 2007 election data, where relevant—to reveal election irregularities. Similar to PFA's assessment of the 2008 presidential election, we found that the outcome of the May 31, 2009 municipal election in Yerevan did not produce any surprises. As in the previous report, the focus here was on indications of fraud that can be detected by statistical inference: ballot stuffing and artificial augmentation of vote counts. All four empirical tests utilized in the analysis offered evidence of fraud and irregularities, including but not limited to ballot stuffing and stealing of opponents’ votes during the vote count, all of which should be taken into serious consideration by all stakeholders involved.

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